Every once in awhile we hear something on the news about the housing bubble and what is happening to the real estate market across the entire United States.
We see our communities bombarded with “For Sale” signs and vacancies due to foreclosures and yet do we really comprehend why this is happening and when it will end?
I am sure that many of you have heard of the term “recession” and tons of you think we are in one, but did you know that we are actually in a housing depression, not recession, and that everything will get worst before it gets better? I am sure by now you are saying to yourself, here is another great article that will point the finger and tell me nothing more than what I already hear on TV and this is where I tell you that my is not to sway your understanding about who is to blame or you think a certain way. My role is to supply you with the understanding and resources to be able to think correctly and question what you watch on TV because you know the facts and what they mean.
Lets begin by describing some important terms that are often put out there and their affect on the housing bubble.
-Sub-Prime Loans: In simple terms, sub-prime loans were mortgages that were given to consumers that should not have had them. Consumers wanted to purchase houses but did not have down payments, good credit, good income, reserved money or any of the other qualifying factors that a normal mortgage has. Due to the limitations that the customers had, these loans usually had low interest rates and payments for the first 12-24 months and then re-adjusted to very high variables there after, causing it impossible for the borrower to pay.
-Predatory Lending: Predatory lending is when a big lender (predator) chooses to go seeking and attacking borrowers by offering them loans knowing they could not afford them. To put in simpler terms, they know you shouldn’t have it, but they want to make money so they’ll sell it to you, even if they know it will hurt you on the long run. They even go as far as to target a certain demographic to ensure the degree of education is low so they don’t have the ability to read all the fine print and clearly understand what they are getting into.
-Short Sale: Envision a short sale as a pre-foreclosure. The bank and you agree that you can’t afford to pay your loan, so you both agree that the house needs to go but you don’t want foreclosure on your credit report and the bank does not want that large of a loss, so you divide the loss in two and attempt to sell the home at a much lower cost. A short sale can be processed in many different ways and typically no money will leave your pocket up front, but taxes are a different story.
-Foreclosure: Bank owns your house.
So here is the equation so far…
Subprime Loans+Predatory Lending+Target Borrower=Short Sales+Foreclosures
Stated Income deals: Mortgages that didn’t require income verification, meaning your word was as good as gold. If you claimed to drive a taxi and that you made $130,000 per year, the bank would approve the deal even though they knew it was unlikely. (Side note: Not all stated income deals are bad.)
-The Government’s Job: To produce as many initiatives as possible that would allow lenders to put more people in houses. President Bush had several initiatives going back to 2001 that concentrated on untying the hands of the lenders and allowing them to get innovative with their loans. By doing so, more people were able to afford houses. Wrong, more consumers were able to afford house payments, not houses.
-Mortgage securities: Lenders always look for more ways to make money and minimize their risks of losing any. When lenders were allowed to sell mortgage securities, it only took a minute for them to understand that there was money to be made. Mortgage securities are just a mortgage loan that a bank owns cut into three pieces and sold on the public market. In simpler terms, even though you pay your payments to a certain bank, they no longer own the rights to your properties but three other people do. These three other people also happened to be banks, investors and foreign investors. Picture this, banks now no longer needed to assume a risk for selling you a mortgage, instead, someone else would assume it and both entities became wealthy. So why would banks care as much if you can’t afford your home? Some banks cared, some didn’t.
Here is another equation to think about:
Greedy Banks+Greedy Investors+Government+Securities=Lots and Lots of Foreclosures.
So now that we recognize what the terms are and their significance in this matter, lets understand what really occurred to cause the housing bubble.
So how come so many people and banks are losing money?
Well lets see how it all began…
Back in 1999, the Greater Washington Area was growing at a very quick rate, many Information Technology companies were booming and coming to the east coast due to cheap real estate and major acreage availability. In other words, they were constructing lots of big buildings for very little money. Government buildings followed from Washington DC and then followed the small corporations and the whole food chain.
With all these new businesses came new employees, and these employees all needed homes and so began the start of the housing bubble. Too many people were here, not enough homes were available and compared to other states that they came from, it was cheap. What we know about basic supply economics is that the lower the supply, the more the demand, and the higher the cost.
Then came unrealistic inflation from home builders. Since prices needed to go up and supply kept going down, houses were selling to the highest bidders with major lot premiums. These premiums made existing houses rise as well since neighborhood homes were selling for $50,000 – $100,000 more than worth because of demand. The good news then was that only qualified people were playing in this game and they were only buying one home to live in but were getting less for their money.
Then came the government in 2001 and their challenge to banks to make it inexpensive and got creative with the loan processes and allow more Americans to own homes. As an incentive the government decided to open the securities market to mortgage bonds and allows lenders to package mortgages and sell them to the public as an investment. Imagine it this way, as a bank, you have the right to give people loans, make money off of it and then not even have to fund them, since you are selling them off to someone else instantly and get your money back; no risk. This is money for lenders and so they decided to do what everyone else that is in business does, make more loans and make more money, even if it doesn’t make sense to put people in homes, its income and growth. What’s the worst that could happen? You foreclose and they get your house worth a $100,000 more than you purchased it and so not only you are out but they make money. No risk taken.
Two years of prosperity and development occurred, the nation was perfect. You owned a home, you had equity and used it to do what you never thought possible and you think to yourself, I never knew I could afford all these things, lavishness and lifestyle. The banking system grew by close to 160% year after year, more individuals moved here, more people bought homes, more jobs were produced and more money was spent on useless material that no one could afford in the past.
Then came a different kind of investors and lenders. Predatory lending started getting worse, and becoming apparent and mass marketed. Investors that weren’t really knowledgeable but rather amateurs that wanted a piece of the pie decided to join the market and buy real estate that they wished to flip and rent. Bad idea! The worst part of it all was that anyone in the mortgage business were making $150,000 a year and didn’t know what to do with it but blow it in poor investments and luxury lifestyles. Another bad idea!
I always say that a good indicator that a bubble is approaching is when your friends start coming up with unrealistic plans in how they can make money from a market trend. This to me suggests that there are plenty of individuals that are already playing that shouldn’t be playing. At this point, the savvy investors are out of the game and all thats left are the investors that can’t afford what they bought and trust others to make their payments through rent and would be lost without it.
2004 arrived and the market steadied itself, there was no longer an over demand for houses, and supply was adequate to no longer require lot premiums. No property premiums means that the inflated $50,000 – $100,000 you were earning from your home in less than 1 month is now gone and if you were the last person to cross the finish line, then you just lost $100,000. Losing money on paper is irrelevant unless you have to sell or refinance, and regrettably you happened to have bought from a predatory lender that sold you a sub-prime loan that adjusted itself and doubled your payment after 12 months of possession. That is really foul, but yet no one forced you to sign knowing you couldn’t afford it, and no one forced you to sign without reading.
The domino effect started and the real estate market started getting infected, as new home prices leveled, used houses were not valued as much. As foreclosure of all those second and rental houses multiplied, used and new house values decreased across the nation. Then came the next problem; the big spenders no longer had the power to refinance as their values tanked and so they couldn’t reduce their payments and keep those great luxuries that they believed they could afford.
2005: Short sales and foreclosures were now on the uprise and starting to damage values, the same economics rule applies again: more supply, less demand drives prices down. More mortgages began adjusting, more individuals couldn’t afford their houses and more people left their house. Big spenders were left with luxuries that meant nothing and second mortgages they couldn’t afford. This was starting to become a huge issue for homeowners. Everyday everyone waited for the comeback of the market and it never occurred.
2006: The banking problems start to show themselves. Major losses on books and records for banks and huge losses from investors that bought into the mortgage securities that banks were selling. Major losses mean major layoffs and the first people to get laid off are those same people that were spending their easy earned money on material and useless luxuries and now were losing their house, as they no longer had similar incomes or any real skill set that earned them their job. They gained and lost their jobs due to demand.
Then came immigration. Immigration? It seemed that the government’s plans to deport illegal immigrants couldn’t have came at a worst time. It was tough because most Spanish families that had been victim of predatory lending were depending on 2-3 incomes within the same home to make ends meet and afford their house, incomes which were not always legally earned and taxed. With these incomes now gone and the mortgages adjusting themselves, the foreclosure rates started soaring causing values to reduce further. 2006 was not a good year for most people but then came 2007 and unfortunately, the situation got worst.
2007: More of the same occurred. Major losses for banks, major losses for investors, many lay-offs, inflation, energy prices grew, home value depreciating over 20% over the previous year. The nation was coming to an end for many people but the reality was that at this point if you had purchased a home before 2002 and didn’t get charged by paying a premium you were still not upside down. That’s right, for the most part. The market had only corrected the lot premiums and the increased prices due to supply and demand, land values had not fallen as hard and dollar per square footage had also not taken a dramatic loss. So the reality that most didn’t hear was that the market equilibrium occurred earlier than expected and removed the fluff (fake income and wealth) from the market, and all that was left was real money.
With all the madness, more sub-prime loans started adjusting and caused more individuals to continue down the path of foreclosure, many of which could have been prevented by a simple call to your lender that you chose not to make just as you chose to not read the paperwork in front of you when buying your home.
Then followed the blaming: Government blamed banks, banks blamed lenders, lenders blamed clients and clients blamed banks and the blame game began but no real answer found.
Let me tell you what is the cause of all of the housing bubble: AMERICAN GREED
We all believe in the American dream, the opportunities that exist, and want to believe that the American dream is about making as much money as possible and therefore get greedy when we see chance.
Banks, house owners and investors got greedy and so did the government. We can accuse banks because they made money on your misery and people made money on someone else’s misery by working for those particular banks and not caring for the consequences of their actions, but Main Street also got greedy by trying to make a quick dollar without reading the fine print when buying 2-3 houses and reselling them for a net profit in less than 2 months. Banks did not do that, individuals did that to other people, and believe me when I say that it wasn’t the rich ones that turned on the poor but the educated ones that saw chance and seized it. The morale of this story is that the common goal in this country is to make money, and people from Main Street to Wall Street earned capital, and lost money and there is nothing weird about that. Those that earned capital and got out on time were those that possessed a fair competitive advantage over the others, they taught themselves on what they were doing before doing it and seized the moment.
Don Sabatini